- Chicago National Activity Index Actual -0.05 (Forecast -0.025, Previous 0.10) ..... USD BEARISH
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.05 in October of 2022 from an upwardly revised +0.17 in September, the weakest reading in four months, suggesting slower national economic growth ..... USD BEARISH
- Fed's Bostic: Ready To 'Move Away' From Large Rate Increases ..... USD BEARISH
- ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in an interview that “we expect to raise rates further”. But “each meeting is different” and “one platform for considering a very large hike, such as 75 basis points, is no longer there.” ..... EUR BEARISH
- The annual producer inflation in Germany fell to 34.5% in October 2022 from a record level of 45.8% in September and August, compared with market forecasts of 41.5%, pointing to the lowest level since June ..... EUR BEARISH
- European bourses are pressured across the board, as China's COVID crackdown weighs on sentiment ..... MARKETS BEARISH
- US futures started a shortened holiday week in the red, with contracts on the Dow Jones futures falling almost 100 points while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down 0.3% and 0.7% respectively, amid flight to safety on concerns of further curbs in China after the country reported covid deaths for the first time in six months during the weekend ..... MARKETS BEARISH
- Oil extended losses on Monday, with WTI crude futures falling below $80 per barrel, the lowest in over seven weeks, amid demand concerns after China tightened Covid curbs ..... OIL BEARISH
Monday, November 21, 2022
NEWS 21 NOV
SIGNAL: BUY LIMIT AUDCAD
SYMBOL: AUDCAD
ORDER: BUY LIMIT
PRICE: 0.8850
SL: 0.8800
TP: 0.9000
VALID UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY
Thursday, November 17, 2022
SIGNAL: Sell limit EURCHF
SYMBOL: EURCHF
ORDER: SELL LIMIT
PRICE: 0.9850
SL: 0.9900
TP: 0.9750
------------------------------------
UPDATE: 21/11/2022
TIME: 12:55 GMT+2
Move SL to BE (0.9850)
QUOTES 17 NOV
Bloomberg: "The correction in the dollar might be over, according to some technical indicators and the latest repricing in the options space. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback retreated by 7% from its cycle highs back in September, mainly driven by position rebalancing over a potential Federal Reserve pivot. The extent of this drop in the spot market now satisfies a so-called ABC correction of a full Elliott Wave cycle that started a year ago. Moreover, the dollar’s rebound Tuesday from intraday lows came after testing a pivotal support level, namely the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally since early 2021. Given another positive signal emerged, a DeMark Buy Setup on the daily chart, the dollar’s technical outlook has turned bullish, at least in the short-term. Options-wise, traders are back into adding topside structures over the one-month tenor that captures the release of the next employment and inflation reports out of the US, as well as the Fed’s policy meeting in December. So it could be that options market makers are now less convinced that the greenback is in for more losses, especially as FOMC officials keep reminding us that the terminal rate matters more than the size of the next hike. That Fibonacci support, close to the Tuesday lows, has now game-changing potential, either way." USD BULLISH
Bloomberg: "European Central Bank policy makers may slow down interest-rate hiking with only a 50 basis-point increase next month, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Initial discussions suggest a lack of momentum for another 75 basis-point move at present. Barring another surprise surge in inflation, the consensus might well favor the less aggressive step. Among reasons cited are mounting recession risks, the possibility that consumer-price pressures will weaken and the prospect that a half-point move in the deposit rate to 2% will reach close to a so-called neutral level that no longer stimulates the economy." EUR BEARISH
Current situation
Hello Traders
Before posting an analysis, let's review the current situation on major currencies.
The main triggers that affect markets this year are:
- The Russian-Ukraine war that started Feb/2022
- Inflation that hit economies hard everywhere, triggered by massive easy money injected by central banks due to Covid and the war put extra weight
- Hiking rates that central banks started this year to fight inflation
- Deteriorating GDP growth and anticipating recessions next year
- Covid still plays a role especially in China due to its zero-Covid policy
The war is putting gloomy expectations for the Euro area in specific. Europe depends mainly on Russian gas for energy supply and Putin played this card to push on Europe due to their support to Ukraine. Until now, support continues but economies and people are suffering due to high energy prices. Winter is coming and Europe's problems will escalate, people will get angry and the economy will suffer more and more.
After a series of rates hiking, inflation starts to show cooling in some countries:
- Australia, Euro area, UK, Japan, and Newzealand still printing higher numbers
- Canada, Switzerland, and United States showed a sort of easing in inflation.
But how Central Banks act is the trigger behind FX price action. A dovish tone started to echo among central banks. Here is a summary of Interest Rates in 2022:
More details and updates are coming. Keep tuned.
Good Luck
WELCOME
Hello Traders
I hope this blog finds you well.
On this blog, you will find posts about Technical, Sentiment, and Fundamental analysis in a simple tradable way. My intention here is to create a destination for traders who seek a destination to acquire what they need to trade in a smart profitable way. And to reach this goal, here is what I promise:
- Technical charts and explanations in a clear tradable direction. No more both-way analysis.
- The market sentiment to figure out how traders think about markets today and correlations.
- Fundamentals that tell a story to trade not a story to justify price action.
Your support and engagement will encourage me to continue this journey.
Good Luck
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